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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.